Better Software Estimates

Mark Ericksen wbscourse.com

open-west

• The problem
  • "How long is going to take?" ~ CEO
  • CEO wants an estimate.
  • "I'm not saying anything" & "He's going to hold me to this!"
  • Did I just look the CEO in the eye and refuse to give him an estimate. I build software
• JIRA's bad at giving software estimates, they SUCK!
• The tool + estimates
• The planning fallacy
  • I've got something right here, these look the same, but this one's different.
• Optimism bias. I think tomorrow and the future are going to be better than it actually is
• Overconfidence: I think I'm better than I am
• "Be a pessimist!" No, no, no.. be
• Coordination Neglect
  • I'm doing something, you are, now they don't fit together
• Procrastination, Fraud, Incompetence

Strategy

• Fog of war: unknown, explore it
• Value of maps
  • Communication tool
  • That's what I'm talking about
• What if you could have a Map for software projects
• WORKING and PLANNED

Work breakdown structure

WBS

• NOT a "work breakdown"
• Not watterfa
• Not works, actions, tasks

What is it? a map

• Agile friendly

WBS Rules

• 100% of the work
  • Mutual exclusive
  • is encompassed of all the work is needed
  • types
    • internal,
    • external,
    • interim (code review,= etc...)
  • no overlap defining pieces
• outcomes not actions
  • What you want, not how you're going to get it
  • I want a gun! Doesn't matter how you do it. Cement bags and etc...
  • WBS mad up of "nouns" not "verbs"
  • The things being built
• level of detail
  • Agile
  • How zoomed into your map?
    • All of US
    • Zoom in you see main roads.
    • Zoom in Buildings, roads, people
    • More risk, more detail.
    • it's not useful when you're in the room It's useful because it's a higher level!!!!
    • 80 hour rule
    • Nothing at the lowest level should take longer than 1 reporting period (1 week?)
    • "if it make sense" rule.
  • Hierarchical Organization
  • Bike Example
    • Bike
      • Frame
        • handlebar
        • fork
        • seat
      • Wheels
      • Braking
      • Shifting
      • Integration
      • Project Management
    • But WAIT, I need the tools
      • Integration
      • ETc...
  • Terminal Elements
    • Smallest pieces which get estimated

was-markdown is the tool

wbsm

init
new
report

# 
wbsm new # md file

wbsm report # html file

Scan down the different things: Oh yeah I forgot this thing

The Illusion Remains

You'll never be cured of bad estimates. Even if you know you have them.

You need to use a tool break the illusion.

Helping people to "get it"

Fuzzyiness

• If we want to get 100% confidence, you've literally built it
• Confidence

Track yourself

WBSM